ECB sees inflation slowing

ECB sees inflation slowing, weak growth European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet has underlined the ECB's expectations that inflation will settle back to its target level in about 18 ...more

Crude Oil

Crude Oil: The pair is in the midst of a very strong bearish correction move, and seems to have more steam in it. All oscillators on the daily chart are providing bearish signals. This is a great opportunity for forex traders to join a very promising bearish correction.more

Forex Technical Analysis

Forex Technical Analysis Euro: Euro fell 110 pips from its intraday high to touch 1.5783 before finally closing stronger at 1.5863. The daily and 4-Hourly stochastic show selling ...more

Canadian dollar falls to 2-day low against euro

During early European deals on Friday, the Canadian dollar extended its Asian session downtrend against the European currency and the Japanese yen. The loonie thus declined to a 2-day low versus the euro. The loonie also weakened against the US and the Australian dollars, thereby losing the gains it posted in Asian deals.more

Australian, NZ Dollar Fall for Third Day as Commodities Drop

Australian, NZ Dollar Fall for Third Day as Commodities Drop. Traders also sold New Zealand's currency as the yield spread between 10-year New Zealand and US government bonds narrowed to the least in almost eight ...more

USD gains on lower oil prices

USD gains on lower oil prices The US dollar made gains in relation to the euro after oil prices fell again in reaction to higher than expected stockpiles in the United States and after the decline in oil prices sent equities ma...more

Asian markets close mixed

Asian markets close mixed; Sensex surges 4% The stock markets across the Asia-Pacific region closed mixed on Friday on the back of disappointing earnings reported by Merrill Lynch, Microsoft and Google after the U.S. market ...more

British pound climbs to new multi-month high against dollar

During early deals on Tuesday, the British pound was mixed against its major counterparts. The sterling advanced to a new multi-month high against the US dollar and a 5-day high versus the euro, while it declined to a 4-day low against the yen. The pound also showed weakness against the franc during this time...more

Federal Reserve Board Prepares To Pass Mortgage Lending Rules

The Federal Reserve is expected to take the next step towards assisting borrowers through tightening the mortgage lending process. The move by the U.S. central bank to provide protection to consumers by seeking out and stopping "unscrupulous" lending practices comes on the heels of a subprime mortgage crisis sparked by an unusually high rate of defaults as consumers were unable to make payments on home loans, many of which were allegedly made without the borrower fully understanding the terms o ...more

Commodities silver

Silver: The violent bullish trend continues as all technical indicators on the daily and the 4 hour charts are showing that the direction is up and the momentum is high. This provides forex forex traders with a great chance of enjoying the additional momentum still left for the commodity.more

USD Technical Forex Analysis

The USD is back on the offensive this morning after disappointing economic news from the Europeans plus comments from the US RE: a Freddie/Fanny bailout encouraged traders to buy USD overnight. UK Producer Inflation hit double-digits in May and the GBP fell as speculation rose that the economy would slow more in coming months; traders note that more weight given to USD strength and EURO data than domestic news overnight. Traders bought USD across the board overnight once it was confirmed that the US intends to aid both Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae to prevent further declines in housing and economic slowdown. In my view, the aid is probably going to help but the overall volumes and upside seen in the USD looks more like a “knee jerk” reaction than a change in sentiment. more...more

US dollar mostly lower in Europe trading

The U.S. dollar sank to a new low against the euro Tuesday and was lower against most other major currencies in European trading. Gold prices rose. The 15-nation euro rose to an all-time high of $1.6038 in European trading, surpassing its previous record of $1.6018 set on April 22. It later fell to $1.5983 -- still above the $1.5916 it bought in late New York trading Monday. Other dollar rates compared with late rates Monday included: 106.23 Japanese yen, up from 106.09; 1.0168 Swiss francs, down from 1.0178, and 1.0052 Canadian dollars, down from 1.0096...more

German investor confidence at 16-yr low

German investor confidence skidded to its lowest level since the private research firm that that compiles the index launched the measurement in 1991...more

Empire State Manufacturing Index

Manufacturing in the state of New York continued its slowdown in July, according to the New York Fed's Empire State survey, which came in at -4.9 to mark the third consecutive month of negative results. Economists' forecasts were divided prior to the release, with the consensus looking for the report to show marginal improvement to -8.0 following a 5.5-point decline to a -8.7 reading in June. New orders rose to +8.3 from the previous month's reading of -5.5, while shipments rebounded to +13.5 from a -6.5 reading in June....more

Bank of Canada Holds Overnight Rate

Ottawa - Faced with the competing challenges of slumping economic growth and rising inflation, the Bank of Canada announced Tuesday that it will leave its key overnight lending rate target at 3%. The stand-pat position had been widely anticipated by analysts, with all eight of those polled by CEP News forecasting that the rate would remain unchanged. Canadian economic growth in the first quarter of 2008 was weaker than expected, the central bank acknowledged in its rate announcement. The economy is judged to have moved into slight excess supply, which is expected to increase over the balance of the year. It will likely be the middle of 2010 before Canada's economy returns to full capacity, the statement said. more...more

Technical

>EURUSD BULLISH< >USDJPY NEUTRAL< >GBPUSD NEUTRAL< >USDCHF NEUTRAL< >AUDUSD BULLISH< >USDCAD BULLISH< The information is provided to you for entertainment value only!

Japan - yen

A survey of Japanese service sector works for June released overnight points to a slowdown in consumer spending and retail trends. The "economy watchers" index fell to 29.5 in June, down from 32.1 in May. The release was the third consecutive monthly decline, and the outlook index pointed to worsening future conditions, coming in at 32.1 in June compared with 35.1 in May. In other news, the number of corporate bankruptcies in H1 2008 showed a 6.91% increase. The numbers point to ongoing weakness in the Japanese economy, and weaker real demand may offset any inflationary pressures. ...more

UK - pound

The DCLG House Price Index registered a 3.7%y/y gain in May, higher than market expectations of 3.5% but down from last month's figure of 4.9%. Nevertheless we note that this number lags significantly behind earlier releases and the pattern is consistent deterioration in the UK's housing markets. In other news, a European Commission diplomat announced that European Union finance ministers have started disciplinary budget steps against the UK, warning that the deficit was set to exceed the country's fiscal commitment of keeping the deficit below 3% of GDP. The news comes on the back of a UK news paper report which points to a NIESR study warning of a GBP 7.5bn budget deficit for the government next year, as ... more

Eurozone - EUR

Recent German data suggests a deteriorating outlook on the German economy-such as yesterday's weak industrial output release-and our economists note that that Q2 GDP will likely be very weak, probably in negative territory. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce said yesterday that on the back of higher energy prices and a strong euro, growth of around 1% in 2009 would be an optimistic outlook. In the last few months a firm German economy acted as a counterweight to weakening growth in the Eurozone, and while the outlook is increasingly deteriorating this will complicate further tightening in rates, even if inflamore

USA - dollar

In European hours, EURUSD remained in a 1.5677-1.5739 range, while USDJPY traded from a high of 107.24 to a low of 106.31. News that US-government-backed mortgage lenders would have to increase capital in order to comply with new accounting rules dampened investor sentiment further yesterday, pushing equity volatility to the highest level in nearly four months. Losses were led by the financials and the energy sector. Investor focus will now increasingly shift to the Q2 US earnings season. The impact of heightened energy prices and depressed consumer sentiment on corporate earnings will be closely watched.more

Today focus

Focus on pending home sales, Bernanke EUR: Governing council shares neutral rate view GBP: House prices still a concern JPY: Survey points to consumer slowdown.

The US dollar has gained some respite after ECB President Trichet signalled a neutral outlook for Eurozone interest rates. This followed a widely expected 25bp rate hike by the ECB last week. But the dollar isn't out of the woods just yet. The risks are that the ECB, Norges and Riksbank raise rates again this year, and are joined by the SNB. In contrast the Fed is unlikely to tighten monetary policy given America's weakening housing and labour markets. EURUSD is likely to test the top of its 1.53-1.60 range again. Similarly, USDJPY remains a sell on rallies. From a longer-term perspective, however, we remain long a three-month EUR put with a strike price of 1.51 as we expect a broader dollar recovery once the US economy bottoms and the slowing Eurozone turns the ECB from being hawkish to dovish on interest rates.more

Japan

BoJ Governor Shirakawa spoke this morning and kept to a familiar script. He said that global inflationary risks were intensifying but said that Japan's economy was slowing on high energy and raw material prices. He said that Japan will likely return to moderate growth after a slowdown. The data flow is limited for the week but the G8 summit due to be held between July 7th and July 9th in Hokkaido will attract market attention. High energy and commodity prices will be in focus... more

United Kingdom

UK manufacturing output fell by 0.5%m/m in May, much weaker than expectations of a -0.1% drop (prior +0.2%). Industrial output fell 0.8% vs. expectations of a -0.1% print (prior +0.1%), raising fears that economic activity is slowing at a much faster pace than originally anticipated. Multiple sectors of the UK economy are showing signs of a significant slowdown and this further complicating policymaking for the BoE. Nationwide and DCLG House Prices indices due this week will likely point to further deterioration on the consumer side as wealth effects take hold The BoE decision on Thursday will be the highlight of the week. Despite rising inflation numbers... more

USA - dollar

The US dollar gained ground against both the euro and yen overnight, trading as strong as EURUSD 1.5612 and USDJPY 107.54. WTI is down 2% and gold off 1.4%. The Nikkei gained 1% and European bourses and S&P 500 futures are in positive territory and at the time of writing. The dollar's gains over the past week have largely been driven by a correction in ECB rate expectations, as well as by a lack of downside surprises in key US data. European data today has brought a sharp falls in Germany's May industrial output, reported at -2.4% m/m versus a consensus for 0.4% and April outturn of -0.8%, and UK manufacturing output, reported at -0.5% m/m versus forecasts for flat...more

EURO zone

German industrial output May drops strongly, below consensus at -2.4% mom (consensus 0.4%, April -0.8%). Negative April and May IP numbers confirm our view that Q2 GDP will be very weak, probably in negative territory. Meanwhile, ECB President Trichet spoke at an economics conference in France over the weekend and stuck to his comments from last Thursday's ECB meeting. He delivered another passionate defence of the ECB's mandate and warned that price stability remains the ECB's current position. He also said that "a lot of positive remarks" had been received after Thursday's decision and the ECB has reason to be content with the general response. In injecting pragmatism into their tone, the ECB will be able ... more

Economists Divided

Economists Divided on Direction of U.S. Economy, Inflation
(CEP News) - With the second half of the year just...